AI forecasts span a range of potential futures, from economic stagnation to explosive growth. The divergence traces to three specific assumptions—each generating predictions we can already test.

Current export rules focus on keeping chips a generation behind. They should focus on keeping America's total compute ahead.

Embodied AI is arriving faster than the regulations meant to govern it. If we start now, that’s a problem we can still fix.

AI is already taking jobs, but that is only one facet of its complex economic effects. Price dynamics and bottlenecks indicate that automation could be good news for workers — but only if it vastly outperforms them.

Shaped by a different economic environment, China’s AI startups are optimizing for different customers than their US counterparts — and seeing faster industrial adoption.

Modern memory architecture is vital for advanced AI systems. While the US leads in both production and innovation, significant gaps in export policy are helping China catch up.

Traditional insurance can’t handle the extreme risks of frontier AI. Catastrophe bonds can cover the gap and compel labs to adopt tougher safety standards.

The White House is betting that hardware sales will buy software loyalty — a strategy borrowed from 5G that misunderstands how AI actually works.