For decades, no nuclear power could disarm its rivals without provoking devastating retaliation. A large AI lead could change that.

US restrictions on frontier AI would have come eventually, but few expected sudden export controls. They could be Europe's wake-up call on AI sovereignty.

AI’s economic impacts will unfold through several waves, with different policy approaches relevant to each phase.

Researchers and policymakers are fixated on the fear of AI launching nuclear weapons—to the neglect of more realistic threats.

AIs with access to all our data will soon be able to vouch for us to others. As people come to trust AI judgments of character, not sharing one will look suspicious.

Western AI safety treatises are surprisingly well-received in Chinese tech media. What does this mean for international AI policy?

AI forecasts span a range of potential futures, from economic stagnation to explosive growth. The divergence traces to three specific assumptions—each generating predictions we can already test.

Governments should set positive incentives for AI safety. Here are four approaches.

Current export rules focus on keeping chips a generation behind. They should focus on keeping America's total compute ahead.